September 20, 2010

China to Build Car Plants in Philippines


Chinese vehicle makers JAC Motors, Chongqing Astronautic Bashan, and Great Wall Motors Company are planning separate investments in the Philippines to build assembly plants for Chinese trucks and passenger cars. JAC Motors based in Anhui has been exporting vehicles since 1990 and is China's number 1 exporter of light trucks. JAC has an extensive dealership network around the world but so far is kept out of first world markets. This year may be a record for car sales in the Philippines where local production is dominated by Japanese carmakers particularly Toyota. Chinese firms are hoping to carve out market share despite the Philippines's relatively high labor costs and notoriously fickle energy grid...

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September 16, 2010

TRADE WAR: USA Takes Steel, Credit Card Disputes to WTO



US Trade Rep Ron Kirk is taking two cases against China to the WTO. The first is a tit-for-tat move to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of Chinese grain-oriented flat-rolled electrical steel or GOES. The case is on behalf of complaints by AK Steel and Allegheny Ludlum. AK Steel Holding is a private steel conglomerate that has seven plants in politically sensitive Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, and employs 4,900 members of Richard Trumka's AFL-CIO union. AK Steel complained in SEC filings that it was negatively impacted by Chinese duties on its GOES sales.

The second case demands access for US credit card giants to China's online processing or electronic financial services. The suit claims that China agreed to such access in 2006 although it is unclear as the China Trade Relations Act and the WTO accession agreement do not include the services...

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April 09, 2010

China Could Become Oil Exporter Again


Long before the Panic of '08 Chinese oil majors planned major expansion of China's oil refining capacity. There are at least 10 major oil refineries or new capacity underway throughout China. According to 2009 data there are around 177 oil refineries of which 78 major refineries are owned by the Chinese oil majors and foreign joint ventures. By contrast the USA has around 150 oil refineries and no new construction for almost 30 years! The new refineries may add 3.7 million barrels per day of capacity by 2013.

In January China National Offshore Oil Corp. (NYSE:CEO) obtained license to export refined oil products. Just a year ago the company opened a new refinery at Huizhou, Guangdong, that is being upgraded to refine up to 22 million tons of oil per year.

If Beijing's big push for alternative energy is successful will all the new refined oil production be needed in China? Or could it end up exported onto Asian or international markets?

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March 19, 2010

Winner Medical Gets NASDAQ Listing


ShenZhen based Winner Medical Group is the leading Chinese exporter of medical dressings. The company has 10 plants in the Pearl River Delta and thousands of employees making specialized non-woven 100% cotton products. Winner has USA FDA license to direct ship sterilized medical products to America. The company has been approved for a NASDAQ listing and will start trading in early April under symbol WWIN. This is another opportunity to directly invest in the roaring Chinese economy and the cost conscious US healthcare industry....

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March 11, 2010

Obama's China Currency Comment


Headline writers this afternoon say President Obama "urged" China to stop controlling its currency. What did Obama say exactly? Long into a banal booster speech at the annual meeting of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (a federal government agency), Obama said

"China moving to a more market-oriented exchange rate will make an essential contribution to that global rebalancing effort."
It surprises me Obama continues to spend political capital in a pointless pursuit to coerce Beijing to appreciate its currency. Washington can urge China all it wants but Beijing has made its position on Renminbi very clear. Just this week at the National People's Congress session China said the Yuan's unofficial peg to the US dollar will end and appreciation up to 10% over the short to medium term is expected.

A move by Beijing to drastically create a more "market-oriented" exchange rate would mean reducing China's dollar holdings in favor of other currencies or gold. Is this ultimately what Washington really wants? It is also hard to argue that the exchange rate of the Yuan is that out of whack for US exporters when China is year after year the fastest growing market for US exports.

A far better use of rhetoric and effort would be for Obama to push Beijing to fulfill its promise to enter into the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) and open up potentially billion$ in opportunities to American businesses. So far no moves on the GPA have been made by US Trade Rep Ron Kirk or anyone else in the Obama administration. Why not?....

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March 10, 2010

China Moves the World


It is an interesting irony that the same mainstream media that criticizes Chinese government data as untrustworthy claims that same data is capable of moving commodities, currency, and stock prices the world over. Consider today's headlines. Chinese numbers on exports and inflation are responsible we read for stock markets going up in the USA, Canada, and Brazil; affected the Mexican Peso, the (US) Dollar, and the Yen; and impacted gold and oil markets!....

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March 08, 2010

China Gets North Korean Port on Sea of Japan


The provincial government of Jilin Province in Manchuria told the National People's Congress today that the North Korean government agreed to lease the port of Rajin on the northeastern coast of the Sea of Japan to China for 10 years. Use of the port will give sea access to the landlocked hinterlands of Manchuria for the first time since the collapse of the Qing Dynasty. Rajin is included in economic and trade zones originally created as part of the UN sponsored Tumen River Area Development Programme between Russia, China, and North Korea. Russia is upgrading a railway from the border to Rajin in what may be competing investment. Chinese development of Rajin port could jump start the Tumen River region. This development has important implications for the economy and navy balance in the region....

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March 05, 2010

TRADE WAR: US Anti-Dumping Duties of 349% on Chinese Bricks


The US Commerce Department is pursuing at least 20 countervailing and anti-dumping duties cases against China. Yesterday a ruling put preliminary duties ranging from 132.74% to 349% on magnesia carbon bricks imported from China. In 2008 the USA imported $50.8 million of Chinese bricks. The original complaint came from one US maker, Resco Products Inc., a privately held conglomerate out of Pittsburgh.

Earlier this week Commerce slapped duties of 109% on certain types of coated paper and 13% extra on Chinese salts....

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January 27, 2010

China Year End 2009 Data Shows Strong Stable Growth


Remember how 2009 began (much like this new year) with predictions of a crash in China because Beijing had poor experience handling a recession and China couldn't possibly decouple from the global recession? Turns out the Chinese economy grew steadily and healthfully all 2009. Here are data points for last year: GDP expanded 8.7%; retail sales grew (in real terms) 16.9%, better than 2008; fixed asset investment grew 30.1% with urban fixed asset investment at 30.5%; capital expenditure investment in secondary & manufacturing industry expanded 26.8%; RMB 9.59 trillion (Yuan) in loans were issued, a 95% increase; exports were down -16% to $1.2 trillion (US dollars) and imports dropped -11.2% to $1 trillion; with exports down Chinese industrial output grew only 11%, the slowest since the 2001 recession; Beijing's foreign exchange reserves grew to $2.4 trillion; although food prices remain inflationary, overall CPI deflated to 0.7%....

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November 25, 2009

Gobble Gobble: China Turkey Imports Up 108% in 5 Years


According to data from the USA Foreign Agricultural Service and other sources, Chinese consumption and imports of turkey meat is mushrooming from around 12,000 metric tons in 2005 to an anticipated 60,000 or more tons next year! China is already the world's number 5 export market for turkeys. Domestic production is increasing rapidly, as usually happens in China trade, but there is no way domestic farms can match demand. And as the delicate flavor of America's most famous native bird becomes more familiar with Chinese it is likely that turkeys will grow in demand. The USA is the world's number 1 producer and exporter of turkeys. Will America capture China as a new and important export market for turkey?

Happy Thanksgiving! Sinomania! will take a break for our national holiday. Back soon....

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September 02, 2009

China's Rare Earth Monopoly


China mines 90% of the rare earth elements in the world and 75% of China's reserves of rare earth products are found in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. A number of reports are speculating on a recent decision by Beijing to limit exports of rare earth metals. Some believe China is hoarding the elements which are vital for many high tech industries. Neodymium, for example, is essential to the batteries used in the Toyota Prius and other hybrid vehicles. But Beijing is also guiding Inner Mongolia to consolidate the industry and shore up rare earth prices. There are many mining businesses and rare earth producers but one company is singled out as the new dominant firm: Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Company, Ltd., or IMBREHT. The firm was established in 1960 and is listed on the Shanghai Securities Exhange as a domestic A share (SS:600111). Its earnings are down considerably for the first half of 2009. Consolidation around IMBREHT will form a virtual monopoly on rare earth elements and make the company a force to be accepted in the medium to long term....

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June 02, 2009

US Trade Rep Kirk on China: Market Access Key


Speaking to the US-China Business Council today, Ambassador Ron Kirk, US Trade Representative, said " The health and growth of our bilateral relationship with China will depend, in part, on this job-creating access to China's markets for U.S. goods, services and investment." Kirk emphasized that the Obama administration will rely on diplomacy and enforcement of China's WTO trade committments. In conjunction with the meeting, the US-China Business Council released a nifty webpage (click for link) to see the major impact on US export growth to China by state and Congressional district....

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May 27, 2009

Japan Improves on China Trade


China is key to recovery in the Japanese economy as it is Japan's number 1 export market. Indications are the dramatic drop in exports to China (not nearly as dire as the near 50% drop in exports to USA in April) has slowed. The data is mixed and far from a definite up trend. But signals are the bottom may have been reached at least in terms of Japan-China trade....

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March 27, 2009

US Soy Exports to China Up


Bright spot: USA Exports of soybean products continue to rise despite worry that demand may fall. The biggest buyer is China and the latest figure is 339,100 metric tons of soybean will be exported to China in the current marketing year....

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December 05, 2008

Paulson In Beijing: US-China Relations "Vital"


BEIJING - In closing remarks today at the 5th session of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, out-going Treasury Secretary Paulson said "the U.S. – China economic relationship will continue to be vital to the health of our two economies and the global economy" and generally praised the cooperative efforts to date between the USA and China to stabilize the global economy in the midst of the Panic of '08.

Several measures were unveiled including a $20 billion committment for each nation's export/import banks to extend credit to worthy importers.

The Strategic Economic Dialogue was started by Presidents Bush and Jiang. It has already lasted through China's presidential transition. Will it survive under President Obama?

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November 13, 2008

Hong Kong-US Container Shipping Down 19%


Containerized cargo shipments from China to the USA, around half of all US container imports, is forecast down 8% in 2008. Container shippments from Hong Kong will be down 19% already.


Westward shipments from America are suffering even more. Wastepaper exports have collapsed and that means containers may sail back to the China coast empty.

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September 17, 2008

Results of US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade Meeting

The 19th session of the US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) produced some important developments potentially impacting US exports to China (particularly medical devices) and progress at long last toward China entering into the WTO Government Procurement agreement. Details here.

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August 20, 2008

Changfeng Motor No HUMMER


According to a "source with direct knowledge" Reuters reports that Hunan Changfeng Motor Company backed away from talks with GM trying to sell its Hummer brand.

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July 09, 2008

China Number 1 by 2035: REPORT


According to the prestigious and often highly influential Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Chinese economy will surpass the USA by 2035 and possibly be double in size by mid century, far outpacing any other nation. The report challenges the notion that China's development is centered on exports to the United States and other "developed" nations.

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