October 08, 2010

Chinese Household Wealth May Double in 5 Years


A new report by Credit Suisse says Chinese personal wealth my increase to $35 trillion by 2015 second only to the USA. The huge number of Chinese with increasing discretionary incomes will reshape the global economy according to the private bank. Sectors expected to see significant growth in China include transportation & communications, recreation & education, housing & utilities, and healthcare....

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September 14, 2010

Summer Davos 2010 Underway in Tianjin


The World Economic Forum's so-called "Summer Davos" confab (officially the Annual Meeting of the New Champions) is underway in Tianjin as the world's political, business, and media elite chew the fat of hot topics and hot dishes. Click here to see the full line-up of participants and panels...

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September 09, 2010

Deutsche Bank Enters ChongQing


German financial powerhaus Deutsche Bank was given permission to open a branch bank by the Chongqing municipality's banking regulators and authority. Over ten foreign banks have already set up shop in Chongqing - China's most dynamic city - including HSBC, Bank of East Asia, ABN-AMRO, and ANZ of Australia. Chongqing recently declared financial services to be a "pillar" industry of the giant independent municipality's economy and a focus of investment and innovation over the long term...

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March 22, 2010

Historic Chinese Drought Marks World Water Day


Today is World Water Day a project from the 1992 UN conference on the environment in Rio. Chinese PM Wen Jiabao just concluded a visit to drought stricken Yunnan Province. For 3 days Wen saw empty reservoirs and dried up villages suffering from a century drought in southwestern China. The provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou are particularly hard hit but also affected are Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Sichuan, and giant Chongqing municipality.

China has suffered devastating droughts from time immemorial. Beijing says the drought in the southwestern region is the worst in 100 years. Officially 51 million Chinese are impacted. The rains stopped coming last October and some areas have not seen rain for 9 months. Downstream along the Mekong River China's dams are blamed by critics in Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam. Wen Jiabao said no one in China would go without drinking water and indicated Beijing will ramp up relief efforts....

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December 18, 2008

TECRO Top Clinton Foundation Donor


The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office or TECRO, the defacto embassy of Taiwan in the USA, is named as a top donor of the Clinton Foundation in the $1-5 million category. Two businesses based on mainland China also gave but much smaller amounts.

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November 06, 2008

AVIC I & II In Massive Merger of Aerospace Industry


The long anticipated consolidation and reorganization of China's aerospace industries is underway with a huge merger of the AVIC I and AVIC II conglomerates. The new single AVIC will be a temporary holding company with several big entities that most likely will each be spun off as independent public companies. The new AVIC is interested in a foreign acquisition possibly a European maker of small to medium size jet planes and AVIC may issue shares. The new AVIC consists of:

Transport Aircraft Corp.

Indepenent supplier expected to compete with Airbus and Boeing for production of Chinese large jets by CACC (COMAC) - see below.
Will own non-defense AVIC assets in Xi'An, Chengdu, Shenyang

"Defense Division"

All military related assets and production centers.
Assigned defense assets in Chengdu, Shenyang, Xi'An, and the military businesses of the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group.

AVICopter

Helicopter makers in Harbin, Changhe and Jingdezhen and other locations.

Aviation Engine Industry Corp.

Containing engine makers and research centers located in Liming, Xi'An, Chengdu, Zhuzhou, and China Gas Turbine of Jiangyou, Sichuan.

General Aviation Company

Production centers at Guizhou and Shijiazhuang of medium size planes.

Aviation Systems Company

Made up of dozens of prototype factories and research institutes across China including those located in Xi'An, Shanghai, and Nanjing.

Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (CACC)

Will become largely independent and rebranded COMAC.
The company will be the Chinese brand challenger to Boeing and Airbus.
And COMAC just got its first big order - 25 Chinese made ARJ21 jets - from GE.

Watch these businesses in the near to medium future. This is big new competition from China in an industry considered a "first world" prerogative.

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October 22, 2008

China Coupling


The flurry of headlines and news reports in major world press highlighting the slowdown of China's economy to "only" 9% refutes the "de-coupling" nonsense about the global economy. We are all linked, China to Europe, Japan, the USA, South America, Australia, Brazil, Chile, ETC., and all concerned experienced a surprisingly sharp fall at the end of the third quarter.


What next? Morgan Stanley says we are in for a "wok" shaped recesssion and to expect only gradual improvement in the forseeable future.

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June 04, 2008

Iran China Ties Build Despite Pressure


At a press conference today Iranian ambassador to China Javad Mansouri said the two countries are increasing ties particularly in energy development.

China is buying more oil from Iran and imports of petrochemicals have grown from under $100 million (US dollars) a decade ago to an expected $1 billion this year. China accounts for around ten and a half percent of Iran's petrochemicals exports.

Last month Shanghai hosted an "Investment Opportunities in Iran" conference. Trade with the "Dragon's Head region (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, & Zhejiang) was in the billion$ in 2007.

Chinese oil majors are developing big oil and gas fields in China and Chinese auto manufacturers will soon supply Iran with passenger cars. Iran is one of many emerging markets for autos with sales over 1 million/year already. Chery will be rolling out the popular QQ sometime this year. And Chang'An Auto, partner to Ford Motors in China, just started a joint venture with the Iranian PIDF enterprise to assemble Chang'An's 1.3 liter mini, Benben, with production of 250,000 a year expected around 2012.

Meanwhile, geopolitical pressures of the EU and USA will leave this huge emerging market to China unless wiser heads soon prevail.

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April 02, 2008

Is Renminbi The Future Reserve Currency?


According to Morgan Stanley's global economic group:

"In the long run, the most likely contender to the USD as the dominant
international reserve currency, in our opinion, is likely to be an Asian
currency centred on the Chinese RMB."

Of course this is big picture and looong term (decades if not more). Something to think about just the same.

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February 15, 2008

Japan Forex Reserves Growing "Suspiciously Fast"


Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum team says:

"Japan’s reserves are growing suspiciously fast. Japan’s foreign reserves expanded from US$946 billion in September 2007 to US$996 billion in November, an increase of US$50 billion in four months. Assuming a 2.5-3.0% return on the underlying assets, Japan should only be enjoying US$25-30 billion in annual investment earnings, or US$6-8 billion a quarter. Further, it is widely assumed that Japan has the bulk (90%) of its reserves in USD, and the MoF never diversified away from USD. With such low holdings of EUR, valuation changes – from the rise in EUR/USD – should not have been a major factor generating gains in reserves. Indeed, what is embedded in our reserve tracker file assumes 90% USD holdings. Our presumptive calculations identified a US$13.7 billion gain during September-January due to the returns on the underlying assets, and another US$18 billion from valuation changes, leaving US$18 billion of the reserve increases unexplained by our metric. Could the MoF have conducted secretive interventions worth US$18 billion? "

Morgan Stanley believes the net result is not stealthy intervention but skillful day trading of Yen/Euro positions and that the data reveals Japan is diversifying away from the US Dollar to over 20% Euro composition in its foreign exchange reserves.

If true, this raises another interesting question: Is America's loyal Asian satellite dumping the Dollar?

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