September 21, 2009
China Watchers Can't See the Tea for the Leaves
The 4th plenary session of the 17th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee ended in Beijing last Friday. According to China watchers and so-called "experts" the party meeting was a bust primarily because their prediction that party secretariat (and current Vice President) Xi Jinping would be promoted to China's Central Military Commission fell flat.
Mainstream media China commenters and analysts along with most of the traditional "gatekeepers" of China disinformation believe Xi Jinping will be the next president of China because he is supposedly aligned with Jiang Zemin. What is lost in this interpretation is the sea change that occurred in the first ever peaceful transfer of power in 2003 when Jiang Zemin stepped down and in the last party congress that selected the current leadership. Hu Jintao's power does not derive from alliance with a former great leader a la Mao or Deng but from his political base the Communist Youth League. Also from the Communist Youth League is Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
According to mainstream China watchers Li will be Wen Jiabao's replacement as PM in a new administration. But this writer believes Li has every chance of becoming China's next president. Here's why: the Chinese Communist Party is changing rapidly. Membership is growing fast and members are getting younger. Over 70% of delegates to the last party congress were under 55 with several hundred under 45. These party members were only teenagers or even younger when Chairman Mao died. They are not committed to "follow the leader" political successions.
And the party is now openly discussing the expansion of what it terms "intra-party democracy" with plans to engage non-party affiliated figures such as Health Minister Chen Zhu and the historic Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. This news has great potential ramifications including the elusive possibility of multi party political participation. Yet it is completely ignored by western news reports. Fact is there is a lot of change going on in Chinese politics. But you need to step away from the silk screen to see it.
Labels: democracy, elections, hu jintao, reform
April 22, 2008
The Strategic Test of the An Yue Jiang
America appears to have won a round in the battle for southern Africa if, as Chinese foreign minstry spokesman Jiang Yu said today, the ship An Yue Jiang turns back without delivering its cargo --weapons for Zimbabwe's embattled ZANU regime headed by vilified strongman, Robert Mugabe.
Both Namibia and South Africa are firmly in Washington's control dating back at least to 2006 when then Deputy Commander of USEUCOM Gen. Charles "Chuck" Wald began plans for armed intervention if Zimbabwe crumbled. The situation is now more extreme as there is a disputed election and threat of a [insert color here] revolution for the USA to support or perhaps rescue.
Mugabe and the Zimbabwe African National Union regime are short of arms since their Chinese supplies can't get through. The vessel An Yue Jiang, said to be loaded with containers of bullets and grenades, is refused entry by every port in American control. Chinese influence in the region is lacking despite all the billions spent on investments and arms sales there.
What can we deduce? Even though southern Africa has less strategic value than many places the sea routes around the continent are vital to Chinese plans to import more oil not just from southern and eastern Africa but possibly South America (Venezuela, Brazil someday) as well. But the US Navy controls the area. The USS Ft. McHenry and HSV Swift were dispatched to the Gulf of Guinea in late 2007 and form part of a new "partnership" to control the region. Sea power still triumphs.
Labels: An Yue Jiang, arms, elections, freedom, great power, military, navy, oil, revolution, strategic, zimbabwe
March 21, 2008
Meanwhile On Taiwan
Taiwan reunification is poised for a major step forward in Satuday's elections for President of Taiwan if Kuomintang (Nationalist) candidate Ma Ying-jeou wins, as expected, over the flailing DPP nominee Frank Hsieh. (Note: Taiwan continues to use the old Wade-Giles Chinese-English transliteration system developed in the 19th Century.)
Of course the possibility of "dirty tricks" exists but after the last-minute "assassination" attempt and recount dramas of 2000 it is doubtful Taiwan voters will fall for it this time. And the last polls (no polls have been allowed since last week) showed Ma with a healthy margin (54% or higher) over Hsieh.
The win by the KMT will represent a watershed in Taiwan-Beijing relations and mark a major setback for the influence of the American Republican Party overseas.
As President Ma promises direct air links to mainland China and business relations. This will begin the process of economic absorption of Taiwan much in the way Hong Kong was absorbed long before the official 1997 "handover".
Goldman Sachs is predicting a bull run in Taipei Stocks with the TAIEX Index reaching 10,000.
Labels: dpp, elections, kmt, president, reunification, taiwan
January 14, 2008
Taiwan Reunification A Step Closer?
The Kuomintang (KMT) party win in the Taiwan legislative elections signals defeat of Chen Shui-Bian and further damages the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) chances of retaining power. Chen Shui-Bian although still legally President stepped down as Chairman of the DPP. The DPP's only hope now is that their ploy to bring out the vote - the referendum on Taiwan's United Nations recognition - will result in a DPP win for the Presidency. That ploy (inspired by the DPP's mentors in the USA Republican Party - think anti-gay amendments and voter turnout for the Presidential election in 2004) may not be enough as Taiwan voters appear to link the island's poor economic performance to DPP rule overall.
The KMT are expected to hasten direct links between mainland China and Taiwan and set the stage for a slow absorption much in the way Hong Kong was integrated directly into the economy of the greater Pearl River region long before the flags changed in 1997. If uninterrupted (certainly not a foregone conclusion) the impact will be felt greatest by the Hong Kong region to Shanghai's benefit and by American weapons purveyors, particularly Lockheed Martin.
Labels: chen shui-bian, dpp, elections, kmt, kuomintang, reunification, taiwan
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