June 17, 2008
Paulson: China and USA to Maintain "Global Economic System"
The 4th Strategic Economic Dialogue bilateral talks between China and the United States are underway in Annapolis, Maryland.
The Chinese delegation is emphasizing joint cooperation on energy and the environment stressing that the world's number 1 and 2 oil importers have much to gain by working together.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said that both nations are responsible for "maintaining a stable, secure and prosperous global economic system."
It is only a matter of time before China becomes an issue in the Presidential elections. Will the strategic dialogue fall victim to politics by year's end?
Labels: china, chinese trade, paulson, strategic dialogue, treasury
June 10, 2008
Sichuan Quake Impacts Oil Supply
Heroic efforts to drain the dangerous Tangjiashan 'quake lake' are jeopardizing the sole oil pipeline to Sichuan Province and giant Chongqing municipality. State-owned conglomerate China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) suspended operation of the Lanzhou - Chengdu - Chongqing pipeline for an unknown length of time.
A CNPC manager in Sichuan told Xinhua it had 20 days of reserves to offset the disruption. The pipeline has capacity t0 transport 6 million tons of oil annually and supplies almost three fourths of the oil needed for the region and downstream to Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces.
There is a potential impact for short-term shortages and price inflation in the area.
Labels: china, oil, peak oil, pipeline, sichuan earthquake
China Shares Nosedive
Chinese stock prices collapsed June 10 with the worst showing since the February 2007 pop of the bull run. Chinese financials, banks specifically, were hard hit and the spin on the crash is that markets are nervous about inflation and Beijing's action to raise, for the 5th time in a year, the reserve ratio requirement for banks. But the reserve hike was expected and only the timing could be a surprise. So was the recent improvement just a bear market rally?
Some numbers: benchmark Shanghai Composite closed June 10 just above 3,000 at 3,072.33 down 7.73% back to the level of last spring - CSI 300 Index sank over 8% - and B shares are down almost 7.5% in Shanghai losing almost all of their recent gain - ShenZhen Bs mirror Shanghai's bad performance.
Labels: b shares, china, chinese stocks, csi 300, shanghai composite, shares, shenzhen
June 04, 2008
Iran China Ties Build Despite Pressure
At a press conference today Iranian ambassador to China Javad Mansouri said the two countries are increasing ties particularly in energy development.
China is buying more oil from Iran and imports of petrochemicals have grown from under $100 million (US dollars) a decade ago to an expected $1 billion this year. China accounts for around ten and a half percent of Iran's petrochemicals exports.
Last month Shanghai hosted an "Investment Opportunities in Iran" conference. Trade with the "Dragon's Head region (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, & Zhejiang) was in the billion$ in 2007.
Chinese oil majors are developing big oil and gas fields in China and Chinese auto manufacturers will soon supply Iran with passenger cars. Iran is one of many emerging markets for autos with sales over 1 million/year already. Chery will be rolling out the popular QQ sometime this year. And Chang'An Auto, partner to Ford Motors in China, just started a joint venture with the Iranian PIDF enterprise to assemble Chang'An's 1.3 liter mini, Benben, with production of 250,000 a year expected around 2012.
Meanwhile, geopolitical pressures of the EU and USA will leave this huge emerging market to China unless wiser heads soon prevail.
Labels: china, Chinese business, foreign investment, global economy, globalization, iran, opportunity
June 03, 2008
China Telecom Mergers - Shanghai Talks Foreign Listings - FOREX - Taiwan - Sichuan Quake Update
full transcript at www.sinomania.com
Sinomania Episode 58 for June 2, 2008, looks at mergers and consolidation in Chinese telecom sector, major changes in Shanghai could see foreign firms listing share offers in China, business news, and an update on the economic impact of the Sichuan earthquake disaster.
Sinomania Episode 58 for June 2, 2008, looks at mergers and consolidation in Chinese telecom sector, major changes in Shanghai could see foreign firms listing share offers in China, business news, and an update on the economic impact of the Sichuan earthquake disaster.
May 30, 2008
Red China Cyber Scare
The USA is "investigating" whether the contents of Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez's laptop PC was copied by Chinese sleuths during a recenttrip to Beijing according to AP reporter Ted Bridis.
Bridis backs his claim on what anonymous "officials and industry experts told the Associated Press," presumably himself. Yet the Commerce Department, Department of Homeland Security, and the FBI have nothing to say on the allegation or are not even aware of any such "investigation."
Ted Bridis has a long history of keyboarding about Chinese cyber spies for Cold War mongerers who believe that the destruction of American civilization itself is but a mouse click away from a Beijing bunker.
But where was the outcry when Donald Keyser a top State Department official lost a laptop? Or when he was convicted of spying for Taiwan?
China threat stories are a feature of election cycles in the USA. As I predicted earlier this year, we will hear a lot of suchnoise between now and November.
Labels: china, cold war, cyber, espionage, hacking, laptop, spies, spying, threat
May 22, 2008
Sichuan Earthquake Economic Toll at 0.5% GDP
Damage from the Sichuan earthquake is estimated at close to $10 billion (US) and shares of companies in the region effected by the quakes fell on Chinese stockmarkets and caused a broader decline in Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index is back down below 3,500 and the CSI 300 Index also plunged this week on the bad news about the impact of the massive earthquake just ten days ago.
Beijing now says over 50,000 people perished in the disaster and expect the death toll to continue to climb. Almost 5 million are reported homeless.
Over 14,000 industrial enterprises are impacted with severe destruction at some big companies such as Dongfang Electric - an important manufacturer of electric engines and motors. Downstream businesses will be faced with supply and price pressures. Asia's biggest oil refiner Sinopec is diverting product to the region and that could mean shortages and price increases in southern and coastal China.
Short term positive trend will be in rebuilding and speculators briefly drove up share prices for Chinese companies in cement, steel, and construction services.
And 184 historic and tourist sites were damaged and in some cases destroyed by the earthquake and may take years to rebuild, if at all, in a region where tourism was just beginning to be developed.
Labels: china, damage, earthquake, economic impact, economy, sichuan
Blood is Thicker Than Water
Taiwan Reunification Watch: The head of the Taiwan work group on the Chinese Communist Party central committee, Mr. Chen Yunlin, said in Beijing today that "blood is thicker than water" and China and Taiwan were moving toward a consistent dialogue on expanding relations.
Only days after Ma Ying-jeou was inaugurated last Saturday, it is announced that Kuomintang (KMT) party Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung will arrive in Beijing to meet with President Hu Jintao.
Meanwhile the invasion of Chinese from the mainland may begin as early as July 4 when eight Taiwan airports will be opened for direct flights from China ending over 50 years of cross Straits air tension!
Labels: beijing, china, communist china, ma ying-jeou, reunification, taiwan
Peak Oil? Blame China
The latest wrong thinking meme in news reporting is to (once again) blame China for the run up in oil prices. In fairness some mainstream media outlets (CBS, PBS) are following the surge in oil prices to NYMEX and placing blame where it belongs - on investors and speculators in oil futures. George Soros has gone so far as to say oil prices are the latest global investment bubble. Of course, Soros has long distrusted oil markets.
Yes, demand in China has increased greater than predicted for the last four years and shows little sign of slowing. The IEA forecasted last year that demand in China would raise to 10 million barrels a day as soon as 2012. But that figure is less than half what the United States currently consumes! And demand is coming from everywhere. Car sales are up over 60% year on year so far in 2008 in Ukraine, as just one example. From Latin America to the states of the Indian subcontinent, millions of people are realizing the dream of the American lifestyle centered around the family car. In many ways the start of the 21st Century is much like the turn of the 20th only this time car culture is reaching new markets all over the world.
Labels: bubble, china, futures, gas, oil, peak oil
May 19, 2008
Sichuan Earthquake Effect on China's Economy - China Aircraft to Compete with Boeing, Airbus
full transcript at www.sinomania.com
The economic effects of the big Sichuan earthquake disaster; Bear market rally but Chinese stocks still down overall; China to challenge world market for jet planes; Japan and China to agree on joint oil and gas development in East China sea... Sinomania! Volume II Episode 57, May 12, 2008
The economic effects of the big Sichuan earthquake disaster; Bear market rally but Chinese stocks still down overall; China to challenge world market for jet planes; Japan and China to agree on joint oil and gas development in East China sea... Sinomania! Volume II Episode 57, May 12, 2008
Subscribe to Posts [Atom]
