February 11, 2008
Hang Seng Plunge! Macro Effects of the Winter Storms - IPOs - AND Happy Year of the Rat!
Hong Kong, Shanghai stocks battered, macro effects and analyst opinions of the winter storms, IPOs on the ASX, Happy Chinese New Year wish...
Sinomania! Volume II Webisode 47, February 6, 2008
Complete transcript at www.sinomania.com
Taiwan Reunification Watch
Another sign of the quickening thaw, direct links are now open between mainland China and Taiwan island for mainland Chinese arriving by ship.
Labels: china, direct links, new year, reunification, taiwan
February 08, 2008
Japan's Scientific Killing Spree
Japanese whaling is about as "scientific" as the experiments on Chinese in Manchuria in the '30s and '40s.
It's time to end the Japanese genocide on whales.
Labels: genocide, japan, whales, whaling
February 07, 2008
Happy Year of the Rat!
KUNG HEY FAT CHOY! / XIN NIAN KUAI LE!
2008 is the Year of the earth Rat. It is the start of a new “great year” in the Chinese calendar system and is the 25th year of the 18th cycle of the 2nd epoch of the Chinese lunisolar calendar. The last year of the earth rat was 1948 and before that 1888. Look back to those eras for some clues as to what to expect this year.
January 30, 2008
Snow Job in Guangzhou?
For almost a week huge crowds of stranded passengers –by some estimates hundreds of thousands – are stuck at railway stations across China unable to travel home for the Chinese New Year holiday because of snow storms blanketing parts of China. The main train station in Guangzhou (Canton) is particularly hard hit. The official explanation for why all trains out of the city are cancelled is that power transmission from neighboring Hunan province is disrupted because of ice and snow. In a showy display of populist support Prime Minister Wen Jiabao went to the Guangzhou train station this morning and talked to stranded travelers.
But is the chaos on Chinese rails all nature’s fault? Signs point to other actors at play particularly the China Southern Power Grid Corporation. The transmission company complained two weeks ago of shortages of coal and having to buy pricey power from Hong Kong and the Three Gorges Dam. Deputy General Manager Xiao Peng of China Southern Power Grid appealed to the National Development and Reform Commission in Beijing for regulatory relief. Reports say that one reason many passenger trains are not running is because priority was given to transporting coal over the railways lest industry cease production. At the same time the Guangdong provincial authorities cut China Southern Power’s tariff rate claiming they are overcharging customers, particularly residential users, impacting its high profitability at a time when it is trying to go public.
January 29, 2008
Chinese Markets Fall, Davos 2008, and this week's Alpha Bet
TRANSCRIPT: Shanghai stocks fall, special comment on Davos 2008, and introducing this week's Alpha Bet for China stocks...
Sinomania! Volume II Webisode 46, January 29, 2008
Full transcript at www.sinomania.com
January 22, 2008
Shanghai Composite Around 4,600 As Predicted
Viewers of my Sinomania! broadcasts will remember that back in May 2007 my prediction that the Shanghai Composite would be around 4,600 at the start of 2008. Even with the big profit bubble of last summer here we are - the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 7% in last trading and closed January 22 at 4,559.75. Now, where to go from here?
"Corrections" of this magnitude are consistent with two of my forecasts for Chinese stocks this year: the hot scenario and the flat. Either way, the roller coaster ride is just beginning!
"Corrections" of this magnitude are consistent with two of my forecasts for Chinese stocks this year: the hot scenario and the flat. Either way, the roller coaster ride is just beginning!
Labels: bubble, china, crash, shanghai composite, shares, stocks
January 21, 2008
Shanghai Composite 10,000? 2008 Chinese Stocks Forecast
The Sinomania! Show season 2 opener with four predictions for the Shanghai market in 2008 plus a look at the big hot button issues for China's economy and foreign relations including sovereign wealth funds and their impact on the US presidential race.
January 15, 2008
Sino-Indian Ties Strengthen
China and India today agreed to a joint "Shared Vision for the 21st Century of the People's Republic of China and the Republic of India" in a signing ceremony between their Prime Ministers. The agreement calls for the two countries to work closely together for a fair "international energy order" including cooperation in nuclear energy. The declaration is a major stepping stone in peaceful cooperation from the two Asian giants and could herald closer economic cooperation and development.
Labels: china, cooperation, india, nuclear
January 14, 2008
Taiwan Reunification A Step Closer?
The Kuomintang (KMT) party win in the Taiwan legislative elections signals defeat of Chen Shui-Bian and further damages the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) chances of retaining power. Chen Shui-Bian although still legally President stepped down as Chairman of the DPP. The DPP's only hope now is that their ploy to bring out the vote - the referendum on Taiwan's United Nations recognition - will result in a DPP win for the Presidency. That ploy (inspired by the DPP's mentors in the USA Republican Party - think anti-gay amendments and voter turnout for the Presidential election in 2004) may not be enough as Taiwan voters appear to link the island's poor economic performance to DPP rule overall.
The KMT are expected to hasten direct links between mainland China and Taiwan and set the stage for a slow absorption much in the way Hong Kong was integrated directly into the economy of the greater Pearl River region long before the flags changed in 1997. If uninterrupted (certainly not a foregone conclusion) the impact will be felt greatest by the Hong Kong region to Shanghai's benefit and by American weapons purveyors, particularly Lockheed Martin.
Labels: chen shui-bian, dpp, elections, kmt, kuomintang, reunification, taiwan
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